This week (February 5-8) is the first working week after the Spring Festival holiday. Although some companies have not yet fully resumed work, the overall price of the rare earth market has risen rapidly, with an increase of more than 2%, driven by expected bullishness.
The bullishness in the early part of this week was mainly driven by emotions: on the first day of returning to work after the new year, the market quotations tended to be less, and there was a strong sense of wait-and-see. After large companies purchased praseodymium-neodymium oxide at 420,000 yuan/ton, the bullish sentiment continued to drive the price, and the trial price was 425,000 yuan/ton. As the number of supplementary orders and inquiries began to increase, by the end of the week, the price of praseodymium-neodymium once again climbed to 435,000 yuan/ton. If the increase in the early part of the week was driven by expected emotions, then the late part of the week was driven by waiting for orders.
This week, the market showed a mixture of reluctance to sell and high price quotations, with expectations of continued bullishness and cashing in. This market behavior reflects the complex mentality of market participants in the early stage of resumption of work after the holiday—both optimism about expected prices and cautious response to current prices.
This week, medium and heavy rare earths rose in tandem, and it seemed that there was no time limit for when Myanmar mines would be imported. Trading companies took the lead in inquiring about terbium oxide and holmium oxide. Due to the low social inventory, both the available price and transaction volume rose. Subsequently, the quotations of dysprosium oxide and gadolinium oxide were raised simultaneously, and metal factories also quietly followed up. The price of bulk terbium oxide rose by 2.3 percentage points in four days.
As of February 8, the quotations for major rare earth varieties are: praseodymium-neodymium oxide 430,000-435,000 yuan/ton; praseodymium-neodymium metal 530,000-533,000 yuan/ton; neodymium oxide 433,000-437,000 yuan/ton; neodymium metal 535,000-540,000 yuan/ton; dysprosium oxide 1.70-1.72 million yuan/ton; dysprosium iron 1.67-1.68 million yuan/ton; terbium oxide 6.03-6.08 million yuan/ton; terbium metal 7.50-7.60 million yuan/ton; gadolinium oxide 163,000-166,000 yuan/ton; gadolinium iron 160,000-163,000 yuan/ton; holmium oxide 460,000-470,000 yuan/ton; holmium iron 470,000-475,000 yuan/ton.
From the information obtained this week, there are several characteristics:
1. The market’s bullish mentality is combined with corporate procurement dynamics: After returning to work after the holiday, the market’s expected bullish mentality breeds a reluctance to sell and wait for a sale. With the frequent news of downstream market price purchases, there is a mutual push for bullish sentiment.
2. The upstream and downstream quotations are strongly willing to increase simultaneously: Although the normal production and sales rhythm has not been fully entered after the holiday, the high quotations driven by trading companies and the factories temporarily wait and see to follow the market quotation, and the futures order prices follow the rise, which clearly shows the willingness of the factory to increase prices and ship.
3. Magnetic material replenishment and inventory consumption are synchronized: large magnetic material factories have obvious replenishment actions in the late week. Whether the pre-holiday stocking is complete or not, it shows that the demand recovery is better than expected. Some small and medium-sized magnetic material factories prefer inventory consumption based on their own orders and cost nucleic acids, and external procurement is cautious.
It has been three years since rare earth prices suddenly fell in March 2022. The industry has always predicted a three-year small cycle. In the past year, the supply and demand pattern of the rare earth industry has long changed, and the concentration of supply and demand has also shown signs. Judging from the situation this week, as downstream companies resume work in full, demand may be further released. Although the performance of mid- and low-end demand lags behind, it will eventually catch up. The strong performance in the short term may continue until there is a disagreement between downstream and terminal bargaining. Next week, the market may be more rational.
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Post time: Feb-08-2025